I was asked today by an investor if they should buy UPST today at $122 or wait…following is my answer:
UPST (Upstart): I have almost a 10% position in the company. I feel this company can double at least from here. I don’t “trade” stocks or quibble over a few dollars on the purchase price, one way or another, as I’m looking for companies that can double, triple and 5x themselves long-term. If I like a company’s fundamentals, I establish an initial position with multiple purchases at the market price. By purchasing at least three different times, I negate the need to time it perfectly.
An easy question to ask yourselves: Will you really care when UPST is trading up at $250/share or at $500/share, if you got it at $120 or $122 or $124? Example: I bought NET (Cloudflare) 7 different times between $21/share and $29 share. Its at $121 now (4x-5x return in less than 17 months). No regrets…even at the high of $29/share back then! UPST is a great company growing extremely fast (Revenue up 90% q/q last quarter) and will almost certainly dwarf that growth when then announce in a few weeks again on 8/10. If I did not think they were going to continue their growth and accelerate, it would likely not occupy one of the positions in my small group of only 10 companies. Note: I have on the side bought some call options as a small bet (trade) on the earnings release in a few weeks, but the main position in the company is established and already a long term bet I will hold indefinitely…until they give me a reason to sell it. Hope that helps! -Poleeko
