My post to a friend earlier today: The anticipation is palpable…like the release of a new Star Wars movie!! Today is exciting because I have NO CLUE how well AYX will do. If they beat on revs by the same $ amount as last quarter ($12.3m beat), then it will only mean 59.7% q/q growth…decreasing. But if they beat by the same percentage they beat last quarter (13.6%), then they will do $147m and that will be 65% q/q growth…even growth. My hope is that they hit $150m (a nice round number), which would be 68% growth and accelerating…I think the stock would run on that number and strength…we shall see!
I know you were all waiting in line over night for the new AYX release like me…I could barely sleep last night!! 😉 I guess dreams do come true!! For those of you who didn’t get into the premier, showing they just released at 1:10pm today and absolutely crushed even my very best case scenario, reporting $156.5M in quarterly revenue, accelerating their revenue growth significantly to 75% q/q growth!! Gross Margins of 92%! They almost doubled both their GAAP and Non-GAAP Income from operations AND Net Income for the quarter. WOW! 30% increase in customers. Dollar based Net expansion rate of 130% is incredible. And they dumped PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PWC) as their auditor, but before you think OMG, that is always a bad sign….they dumped them to announce a 5-year joint venture strategic partnership as their Elite Partner on a consulting level…you see, as AYX’s auditor, PWC had a conflict of interest because AYX was being recommended or implemented at too many of PWC’s customers…clearly just about the best possible scenario you could ever dream up. Stock shares are up significantly after hours on top fo their already 46% gains over the past 45 days…but it will be very interesting to see how the market reacts tomorrow. Will investors “sell the news” and create a buying opportunity? Will the shares skyrocket on the back of phenomenal fundamentals and growth and the very traditional cup and handle technical pattern that the stock graph is showing? Will the Coronavirus scare dampen any enthusiasm and drag everything down I can never seem to predict the short term stock results, but make no mistake, this company is my single largest holding by double and this is the reason why. I invest in great, fast growing, near profitable companies with great fundamentals and don’t worry about the stock price. I won’t be selling any of it. This company could still double or triple from here. One possible negative: The thing AYX ALWAYS do is soft pitch the future guidance (underestimate it), which is why they have significantly beat their guidance every quarter, 100% of the time. Low future guidance would be the only thing that could dampen investor enthusiasm tomorrow. But I have very little doubt they will again beat their estimates next quarter, short of a global catastrophe between now and then.
Happy Investing, Ladies and Gentlemen…an early Christmas!! 😉.
