Happy new year!
I hope and trust everyone had a fantastic holiday and some much needed time off. The 2020 portfolio has started off on an absolute tear!! You might even adopt the century old description “Roaring 20’s”! The above is just a screenshot for today, but except for yesterday’s minor decline, every day this year has been up nicely….and my portfolio is up more than 20% this year to date since January 1, 2020. Keep in mind that is on top of last year‘s gains…and the year before…and the year before (all which exceeded 40% per year). Who says intelligent stock picking doesn’t work? I have been working furiously on a new website and blog to replace this text message and am excited it is almost ready to roll out. I hope to post a more comprehensive analysis of 2019 performance soon, but for now, I thought I would simply try to update you on a few changes and rebalancing I have been doing. AYX is still my Number one bet and my single largest holding. Indeed, in the past two weeks it has ballooned up with a huge surge in stock price to be the single largest percentage holding I’ve ever had at 25%, which I’m looking to trim yet again, but only to diversify. It is still my favorite and could easily hit $300 (more than double) over the next 18 months. My newest large holding is CRWD, which has replaced my large ZS, TWLO and SQ holdings…all of which I’ve reduced significantly for various company performance reasons. I’ve spoken of CRWD above and it’s 88% revenue growth is blistering. For right now, it is the fastest horse out there and I believe the stock price will reflect that over time. Rounding out my new positions is DDOG, Which I absolutely love as a company, but struggle with the valuation. I have a small position of 4 1/2% on it. Last year, the portfolio hit an all-time high on June 26, up 101% for last YTD… at the time. The portfolio never re-achieved those heights in 2019; however, if we were still in 2019 today, on Jan 15, 2020, the portfolio would have surpassed that high earlier this morning. My point is that I invest in good companies and don’t try to time the overall market. I remained fully invested in my portfolio (with some rebalancing). I look at the performance of the individual companies each quarter and adjust accordingly without overreacting to market sector rotations, recessions, politics, or other beta factors. (Beta is one to the Greek letters used in finance to describe forces on a stock outside the companies direct internal performance). I hope all of you continued to hold and/or add to your positions between July and December, as you are benefiting and probably above your all-time highs now if you did. 2020 will be very interesting year, but I can’t imagine we will go into a recession, as it is an election year and that is very uncommon historically. That said, I would be foolish to try to make any promises or predictions with this administration and on this global and political stage. These SAAS companies however should continue to grow at a blistering pace and I certainly hope and expect the stock prices to follow.
Happy new year and happy investing in 2020!
