Following is a brief analysis of ESTC (Elastic) from a friend of mine in NY whom I have come to have a healthy regard when it comes to investing. It explains why I have a VERY large position in Mongo and currently only a 1.5% position in ESTC that I am currently assessing whether to keep:
Let me give you Elastic’s five most recent quarters, in order, starting from April 2018, and ending with April 2019. I’ll round them to the nearest whole percent for clarity. Here they are:
82%, 79%, 72%, 70%, 63%
They are clearly descending, which is normal with increased size, and not alarming in itself, although the fall from April 2018 to 2019 of 19 points from 82% to 63% is probably more than we’d want to see. Let me be clear. I feel that they are still growing at a VERY rapid rate. The share price will inevitably rise. That’s not my problem. It just has too many issues for me, and I look for a clearer picture.
Now let’s look at Mongo’s five most recent quarters, in order, starting from April 2018 and ending with April 2019. I’ll also round them also to the nearest whole percent for clarity. There is a complication as the first four quarters were given in ASC605 accounting standard (starting with Apr 2018 and ending with Jan 2019):
49%, 61%, 57%, 85%
And then they switched over to ASC606. We only have Jan (the last of the above four quarters) and April 2019 under the new standard. Under the new standard the 85% for the Jan quarter became 71% (still WAY up from the 57% growth the quarter before sequentially). Then the April quarter was 78%. So for the five quarters we have:
49%, 61%, 57%, 85%, 71%, 78%
The rate of growth is clearly accelerating, which is evident no matter how you look at it, even though the change in accounting standards confuses it a bit. This is not normal with increased size, and is undoubtedly due to the increase in revenue from Atlas which is becoming a larger and larger part of their revenue.
We saw that year-over-year, from April 2018 to April 2019, Elastic’s growth rate fell 19 points from 82% to 63%.
We now see that year-over-year, from the same April 2018 to April 2019, Mongo’s growth rate rose 29 points from 49% to 78%.
There may have been some effect either up or down from the change in accounting standards, but the direction is clear.
I, Victor, will only add that including currency fluctuations, ESTC revenue growth would have been closer to 68% in constant currency, which is still INCREDIBLE growth compared to almost any other companies out there…but also still declining growth which can be a cause for concern if it continues. It is also important to know right now that the lockup on selling shares by employees recently expired, which is certainly also putting a lot of pressure on the price… as many employees look to cash in on shares they got for pennies, the market is temporarily flooded with shares and the law of supply and demand inevitably forces the price down. I will be watching ESTC closely to see if revenue growth continues to decrease, level out, or turn around. For the time being, I will keep this position small, but may either sell what little I have, or pick more up based on what I see coming up…Cheers!!
