Anyone out there? One of the biggest days of the year and its crickets!? 😴. Please, please, please just text me offline if you want me to remove you from this string. I don’t want anyone having to block me for spamming their SMS board!! I sincerely hope everyone is deriving some sort of gain from following my ramblings. Some of you text me offline to ask questions…happy to respond or address any way that you prefer. Cheers!!
User question: The question is for me, how well will we all do when things go south. In the current market, gains are relatively easy (though you=we clearly outperform). The big question mark is – when does it end.
Victor: Hah! There we go! Thank you. Actually, It is important to know that I have owned MDB over a year now. I did not sell any or even act. I talked about picking up some more above, and that was based on the recent earnings call I just listened to with brand new and accelerating growth. That is not emotional, it is based on results that we just received. It is worth pointing out that I have purchased additional shares of MDB on 9 different occasions now without selling it once. That is how I feel one should do it. As the company continues to perform, add to your position in pieces. I never buy an entire position in one purchase.
Easy gains? Hmmm…I should show you my spreadsheets on every company I analyze sometime when you make one of the forum meetings. 😬. JK! When does it end? Well, when the world ends, I guess. Take the last 150 years and the stock market has averaged 8% per year in the US. That includes all the recessions. If you are talking about 2000 or 2008, yes, you were down 50% or more. If you stayed in your stocks in 2008 you made it back a few years later. Over time, the other ‘up’ years made up for it. Its a long haul. I don’t get in and out and in and out. Yes, I may be down 50% tomorrow due to an EMP or massive earthquake here in Silicon Valley, but my portfolio is up 300%+ in the past 3-4 years. If I worried and kept out of the market all that time, the opportunity cost would have been massive the past 4 years. If you are just doing this for a few months, short term and trying to time the market…good luck. I have never been able to do that and don’t try. And Id also never recommend anyone throw all their assets into the stock market without doing some homework, learning and developing a strategy and habits. I don’t want to be average…I want to outperform the market. And I have…by a multiple of 10. I believe that the companies are solid and will also outperform in a down market, though short term psychology may prevail and hit them hard in a downturn, long term I will hold (as long as they continue to grow) and they should rebound much faster. But honestly, I could be completely wrong, but “When I grow up, I want to be sorry for the things I have done, not for the things I have not done.” — Lyas
User comment: @Victor – I’m loving the updates. And certainly loving the results.
User comment: Me too! I think it’s training me to think differently about how I invest my money and what to look for. The majority of my portfolio is not in the market but I’ve been increasing it over the last year. I feel fortunate to be close to a lot of these companies (living in the Bay Area). I find looking at Bay Area companies is a good starting place for research.
I’ve heard a lot about Samsara and Snowflake (both private) so look out for those if/when they IPO. Thank you!
Victor: Yes. Thank you for the heads up. Snowflake should be a hot IPO. I will be analyzing both!
User comment: I’m in Asia so I just woke up 😁 I went to bed with my portfolio up about 4% and woke up to a 5.5% gain while I slept. I’ll take that!
Question on ESTC – I’ve been in the stock since mid-March and it’s by far my worst performer, -4% as I type. Earnings call was great but they just appear to lack momentum. Rumors of the insider lock-up period ending Monday may be playing a role but they seem to have been in a channel for some time now. Love to hear your thoughts.
Victor: I like ESTC. At 12% returns since my purchase, it is my laggard also, but the quarterly reports are fantastic, q/q subscription revenue growth is above 66%, customer growth, increasing deferred revenue…and…and…whats not to like…except the price of the stock. Sometimes good things take time…but yes, if the lockup is expiring, shares will flood the market in the short term and drive it down. I will continue to hold my small position and monitor it. Wish I could shed more light on the psychology of the market, but the fundamentals look great. And Trump is tweeting again…this time it bodes very well for the markets on Monday….
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3469968-u-s-mexico-come-terms
User comment: Appreciate the insight. One of my smallest holdings as well because everything else is screaming!
User comment: Beyond Meat shot up by 21% today. I’m still so skeptical of the stock market, because of exactly such things. 10bn market cap and 600% growth in the last few weeks. At revenues of 40m per quarter…
Victor: I believe you are right to be skeptical. Beyond Meat has no earnings, ARR or revenue growth yet on which to base their incredible valuation. I think the stock is ripe for a massive correction in valuation. Only thing I can attribute the runup in price is marketing and hype. When it wears off, the shorts (people who bet it’s going down by shorting or selling shares in hopes of buying it back later at a much lower price to deliver the shares to those who bought it at the height) are going to massacre this stock. No argument that they have a great story, a market changing product, and will eventually be a profitable company, but I think we have the cart before the horse a little bit. Just my armchair QB comments, but I have NOT reviewed this company in depth.
AYX surged yesterday primarily as a result of the announcement that Salesforce.com is buying one of their competitors called Tableau for $15.2 Billion. At the current stock price, AYX market cap is valued at only $6.0 billion. It’s great to see this development as it often can indicate the market value of a company like AYX and imply that it is undervalued in an acquisition scenario. I have no reason to believe they are a target or that this will happen for AYX, but it’s certainly nice to see and I’ll take the great pop they had yesterday on the news.
The Trade Desk Could Be The Investment Of A Lifetime $TTD
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4269593
AYX is up another 10% today…besides the analysts upgrade by Needham today, I attribute it to the commentary above on Tableau. Another all time high price for this predictive analytics leader in the digital revolution.
Needham boosts Alteryx after investor event
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3470820
On the radar: Crowdstrike IPO is today. Unlike Uber I was not able to get in pre-IPO. Crowd strike operates in the digital cyber security arena and is a modern replacement in the cloud for companies like Norton. They don’t compete directly with ZS, but are in the same industry. Today I purchased a starter position at around $57 per share. This is a very highly valued company, but one that is growing extremely fast. Based on the S-1 And a very quick review, I like what I’ve seen. That said I have only a 1% position at this point until I have the opportunity to analyze it appropriately.
