Ouch! NTNX will probably get hit hard tomorrow based on disappointing growth. Still need to dig into the earnings call to figure out what happened. ZS however should do phenomenal tomorrow. It looks like they crushed it in every possible way. We shall see. Can’t win them all, but I’m very disappointed in Nutanix as it was one of my biggest hopes for 2019.
And… you lose some! Hate to focus on losses, but NTNX is down 35% today. I never dreamed I’d see this type of reaction to an earnings beat! Guidance is down, CEO concerns. Lots to dig into…but at this point it’s undervalued IMO. Problems are temporary, but doubt around CEO ability to lead and continue growth are plaguing then today…trying to do some homework.
On a brighter note, ZS is up 20%. Wins: 5; Losses: 1 (but a big one)
User comment: ZS makes up for most of NTNX for me
Victor: Nektar up 2% after hours on encouraging data on NKTR-262/NKTR-214 combo
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3439304
After some research, contemplation and review, I feel NTNX as a company is “listing in the wind” and failing to execute at a hyper growth rate currently and may require 3-4 quarters to get back into the fast lane. Their earnings were good and they added over 1000 customers, but they warned on future guidance and are having sales and marketing challenges. After holding the stock for over a year (my gains are still over 20% after today’s rather overdone beating in which it is down 32%) I will over the next few weeks decrease my position significantly. Today was capitulation, though, and I felt it was too oversold to sell at this very cheap prices and I expect it to rebound to $38-46 in the short term. I will likely redeploy those funds to AYX, MDB, ESTC and TTD. Good lesson in humility, and grateful ZS made up for most of the loss in NTNX. Certainly learned something on this one…management, sales and execution is just as important as having the very best in class product. Have a great weekend, investors.
User comment: Wow. Ok. Will follow your lead.
Victor: But what do I know!? I could be wrong. I still feel NTNX has a great product and long term they should do fine…at this much lower EV/S ratio, they might even be a takeover candidate…🤔. I just feel there are some other faster horses than NTNX. Read the earnings report and let me know your thoughts.
Nutanix: Down But Definitely Not Out $NTNX
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4245974
ESTC lockup for 25% of the IPO shares expired today, flooding the market and putting pressure on the stock price. ESTC is down 3% today. I am using the opportunity to add to my position.
Okta Q4 2019 Earnings Preview
Mar. 6, 2019 5:35 PM ET|Okta (NASDAQ : https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/OKTA) is scheduled to announce Q4 earnings results on Thursday, March 7th, after market close.
The consensus EPS Estimate is -$0.08 <https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/OKTA/earnings/estimates> (+20.0% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $107.93M (+38.7% Y/Y).
Over the last 1 year, OKTA has beaten EPS estimates <https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/OKTA/earnings/eps_surprise_summary> 100% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 100% of the time.
Now that is a pretty green sight to behold!! 😉
Tomorrow will be the last of my companies [MDB] to report earnings. I am still 2% below all time highs reached a few weeks ago before one particularly bad day by NTNX, but most of the companies have done spectacular. 4 of my companies stock prices are within 1-2% of their all time highs and 8 of 10 are trading significantly above their 52 week highs as of a month ago, including MDB who will release after the close of market tomorrow. I have lightened a bit more NTNX today as I said I would, as it is up over 12% since the fall and recovering nicely. I have put some of the funds into ZS, OKTA, ESTC and sold 10 AYX $75 Put options that should expire worthless this week.
Selling (vs. buying) options: You get paid to sell a call option or put option to someone else. If the price of the stock goes above the strike price of a put, in this case, it expires worthless and you get to keep the proceeds of that put you sold. If however upon expiration of the Put Option the stock price is BELOW the strike price, the person who you sold the put to can PUT the shares or “assign” them to you at that higher price. One alternative thing you can do if you don’t want the shares to get assigned to you when they expire below the strike price is either buy them back at a higher price than you sold them (taking the loss) or else you can “roll” them by buying them back and simultaneously selling the next month put to extend your the time for the stock to go above your price. All quite fun once you do it a few times and learn the techniques. But I’ll try to stick to buying and selling stocks for now… let me know if anyone wants a separate string on options! 😉
MDB is up 19% after hours today on their earnings release that crushed expectations. The stock should be up significantly tomorrow on the opening. I will be listening to the earnings release later today, but on the whole this is the best quarterly earnings release for my companies… well…ever. Happy investing and hoping you all own some of these names…errrr except NTNX!!😱
Also if interested, regarding the ESTC lock up expiration, I refer to page 61 of the ESTC S-1. That’s a TON of shares that are out there. No wonder the stock tanked when the lockup for insider selling expired. Anytime that many shares hit the market all at once (these are are early investors and employees with very cheap shares who need to take some money off the table) , the laws of supply and demand kick in and the price will drop…that is what you’ve been seeing the last week in n ESTC.
MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) CEO Dev Ittycheria on Q4 2019 Results – Earnings Call Transcript $MDB
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4248644
Wow!? 87% subscription revenue growth! 130% growth year over year in # of customers to 13,400…firing on all cylinders and lifting off I’d say!!
